Canada’s steep fall in international student enrolments is redefining long standing assumptions about global education flows, with analysts saying the era of the “big four” study destinations is losing relevance.
The country is expected to issue about 80,000 study permits this year, far below the federal cap of 437,000 set for 2025. Even next year’s reduced limit of 155,000 may be difficult to reach based on current projections.
Although the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia are also tightening rules, Canada’s decline is far more severe. Lil Bremermann Richard, chief executive of Oxford International, said the shift reflects an “evolving” strategy that aligns student intake with housing and labour market constraints. She argued that governments worldwide are broadening their education ambitions, which could usher in a more dispersed set of preferred destinations.
A new survey from NAFSA, Oxford Test of English and Studyportals found that 82 per cent of Canadian universities reported drops in overseas undergraduate enrolments this year. The figure compares with 48 per cent in the US and 39 per cent in the UK. Restrictive policies were cited as the top barrier by 90 per cent of Canadian institutions, well above the share reported in other countries.
Universities are already bracing for financial strain, with 60 per cent anticipating budget cuts and half expecting staffing reductions in the year ahead.
Canada still hosted nearly one million international students when figures were released earlier this year, but rising competition is changing the landscape. Germany, which has almost 500,000 international students and continues to expand, is increasingly viewed as a future challenger.
Vincenzo Raimo, an international higher education consultant, said Canada has not withdrawn from global recruitment but the sector itself is transforming. He said the idea of a big four has become outdated as mobility within Asia accelerates and countries such as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan increase their appeal.
“Global student mobility is becoming far more distributed, as students seek value, safety, post study opportunities and predictability,” he said.
Alex Usher, president of Higher Education Strategy Associates, said many foreign students chose Canada with immigration in mind. “No other country will give them that opportunity and so no other country will benefit. That’s a market that’s just going to dry up and blow away.”
The government recently exempted master’s and PhD students at public universities from the cap, suggesting room for further flexibility. Janet Ilieva, founder of Education Insight, said that the latest budget signals a “clear shift towards attracting top talent,” citing measures aimed at doctoral students and postdoctoral researchers.
She added that restrictions in major English speaking destinations are driving a redistribution of global demand rather than an overall decline. Inward looking policies and geopolitical uncertainty are pushing many students to choose safer and closer alternatives.
Recent data also shows that Canadian universities operate just seven international branch campuses, fewer than Ireland, Germany or the Netherlands, and far behind the US and the UK.
Usher said the limited overseas footprint reflects a lack of institutional appetite for risk during years of strong inbound demand. He expects interest in global expansion to grow, but warned that “a switch like that takes time.”
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