The rapid growth of OpenAI’s valuation in the private capital market is bringing the company closer to a projected IPO with a capitalization of over $1 trillion. However, the structure of this growth is becoming a key source of risk. The latest financing round — in which the project raised $122 billion, exceeding the planned $110 billion target — brought the valuation to $852 billion. At the same time, a significant part of these funds is provided by a select group of strategic investors such as SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia, increasing capital concentration and creating a closed-loop financing effect within the AI ecosystem.
Despite monthly revenue growth to about $2 billion, OpenAI remains in an aggressive investment phase where capital expenditures significantly outpace current inflows. This is prompting a reassessment of priorities: the company is abandoning less profitable areas and taking a more cautious approach to building its own infrastructure, transferring some of the projects to partners. This shift reflects a transition from an expansive growth model to a more selective allocation of resources, which is an important signal for investors ahead of a potential OpenAI IPO.
Dependence on external financing and infrastructure remains a primary risk factor. In recent investor disclosures, OpenAI explicitly highlighted its dependence on Microsoft, which has not only invested at least $13 billion in the startup but also provides access to computing power through Azure. This concentration of resources from one partner limits strategic flexibility and may trigger market skepticism during IPO preparation. Additional pressure comes from the company’s dependence on hardware vendors, including semiconductor manufacturers, as well as the need to invest up to $665 billion in infrastructure by 2030.
The financial burden also extends to key investors. SoftBank — having committed roughly $34 billion to OpenAI, funded in part by a massive liquidation of its Nvidia stock — is now preparing to raise up to $30 billion in borrowed funds, potentially pushing its debt above historical levels. A growing share of non-public assets and recent credit rating concerns reflect market doubt regarding the payback period for AI infrastructure. The 45% decline in SoftBank’s stock price since October 2025 demonstrates that risks associated with OpenAI are beginning to spill over to investors, increasing the project’s systemic importance for financial markets.
In response, OpenAI is attempting to diversify its capital sources and reduce dependence on a single partner by expanding cooperation with alternative cloud providers and attracting a wider range of investors. However, this strategy complicates the company’s financial structure. Venture capital, debt financing, and infrastructure contracts are becoming increasingly intertwined, forming a multi-layered model that is sensitive to shifting market conditions.
Thus, OpenAI remains the primary driver of the AI sector, demonstrating an unprecedented ability to scale revenue and attract capital. Yet, the mounting risks associated with partner dependence, investor debt, and massive capital requirements cannot be ignored. In this environment, investors are becoming more selective, shifting from optimism to a more nuanced assessment and considering not only growth, but also the stability of the financial model, infrastructure diversification, and the company’s ability to convert large-scale investments into long-term profitability.
