Bookmakers like LV BET, before every game they allow bettors to place bets on, set up the odds. These are called starting price or SP. The starting price is determined by the bookmaker for each particular game by taking into account every variable and factor to count the outcome of this given game according to their own information sources and records.
Methods
There are many ways to count the odds for particular games. Bookmakers use several methods to do that:\
Direct counting
A bookmaker, online casino/live kazino or bookie counts the odds based on their own information sources and records, for example from players’ stats or team squads. If you use your own formula for odds calculation you can be sure that everything in this formula is absolutely legal. Moreover, predicting games accurately creates reliability levels for particular bookmakers.
Bookmaker’s reputation is of a great importance for any bookie. If you have an opportunity to use your own formula for odds calculation, if it makes sense and is profitable – why not do it? This way you will create your reputation as well.
Indirect counting
In this method the bookmaker uses other bookmakers’ information sources and records. It is called indirect counting because you use the odds from another bookmaker, so your own risk levels are lower than direct odds counting.
On the other hand, bookmakers do not build their own reputation, their information sources are not accurate since they are acquired from another bookmaker so if there are any mistakes in those data, bookies using indirect counting will make mistakes in counting too. Therefore, the reliability level for indirect methods is lower than direct one.
What are the variables in counting the odds?
Strategy
Players and teams strategy is one of the main factors for bookmakers to set the odds. If a bookmaker has access to such information before the game or just knows what are the strategies of players and teams, this information will be included in each bookmaker’s odds calculation formula.
Statistics
In every game more than 100 various statistics and figures are collected. Bookmakers use the most important ones to count the odds for particular games. For example, goals scored, total shots or corners can increase or decrease chances of one team winning the match. All the performances in a particular season are taken into consideration, also past matches between teams and so on.
Bookmakers use special statistical analysis programs to count the odds for particular games based on statistics in a more efficient way. For example, you can gain knowledge whether corners lead to goals or not. This information is crucial for a bookmaker’s decision whether to increase or decrease the probability of one team winning over another.
Health condition
In football every injury is important for every team since without their well-performing players they cannot perform as well as they usually do. In particular games, the bookmaker’s odds calculation formula can include information about injured or ill players from particular teams. If the main player of team A will not play because of an injury, this fact will be included in each bookmaker’s odds calculation formula.
Weather
This is another factor which the bookmaker’s odds calculation formula takes into account. Weather conditions can have a serious influence on a game’s results. For example, wet pitch and low temperature can make the ball move slower, which is not very good for game’s flow and can have a significant impact on its results. If the temperature in the stadium is too high or there is strong wind, it can make players more tired and lower their concentration to make mistakes.
Another thing is that players from countries where there are no hot temperatures might have problems in games played in hot places.
On the other hand, not every change in weather conditions lead to an increase or decrease in teams’ performances since many footballers are quite well prepared for this kind of changes
Distance between teams
Or ‘traveling distance’ is another factor which is taken into account to create the bookmaker’s odds calculation formula. Teams from different countries tend to travel further than local ones, so their performance level can be lower since flying takes out a lot of energy from players. In addition to that, long traveling distances lead to jet lag for many players which influences negatively on their concentration and performance.
Bookmakers also take into account how good the teams’ manager is to organize trips for the football team or find an efficient way to deal with increasing team conditions after travel.
Managers
They are not players but their performances are crucial for team results. For example, if there is a change of coach and players must get used to a new one, it can have an impact on their performances as well.
Conclusion
In bookmaking it is crucial to set the odds for a particular football game. It is also important to take into consideration all factors which can influence on it’s result. Odds calculation formula takes into account many of them, so the bookmaker’s decision whether to increase or decrease the probability of one team winning over another should be quite fair and accurate.
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