By Emil Bjerg, journalist and editor
Trump signals major shifts in Russia-Ukraine strategy. Can the new approach end the war and what is the price for Ukraine and Europe?
At a NATO meeting in Brussels, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has outlined Trump’s Ukraine policy.
Hegseth states that Ukraine needs to abandon its “unrealistic aspiration” of returning to its pre-2014 borders and suggested that Ukraine should prepare for a negotiated agreement with Russia. That could mean losing territories such as the occupied Crimea and the region Donbass and Luhansk.
Hegseth also remarked that Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO is “not realistic” and that European nations “must shoulder the majority of future lethal and nonlethal support to Ukraine”.
Hegseth and Trump’s perspectives are dramatically different from Biden’s pro-Ukrainian policies. And it’s creating a stir in Europe.
Along with European colleagues, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, expresses concerns. “Why are we giving them [Russia] everything that they want even before the negotiations have been started?” said Kallas to a group of NATO defence ministers with their Ukrainian counterpart in Brussels. “It’s appeasement. It has never worked” said Kallas, adding that “a quick fix is a dirty deal”.
Trump: Negotiations to Start ‘Immediately’
Still, President Trump announced that negotiations to end the Ukraine war will start “immediately” following a phone conversation with Putin. Trump stated, “We [Trump and Putin] agreed to collaborate closely, including visits to each other’s countries. We have also decided to have our teams initiate negotiations right away.” Trump added that Putin agrees that it is “common sense” to end the conflict and that “I think we’re on the way to getting peace”.
Without specifying a date, Trump has announced a meeting between himself and Putin. “We’ll meet in Saudi Arabia,” Trump told reporters in the White House.
Towards peace, but on which terms?
With Trump and Putin seemingly having a meeting planned, peace negotiations can move fast – Likely too fast for Ukraine and EU leaders. A European NATO diplomat described the new U.S. approach as akin to forcing Ukraine’s “preemptive surrender”. Leaders in EU countries come across as aligned in saying “Don’t cut Ukraine out of the peace talks.“
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasized, “Peace can only be achieved together. And that means: with Ukraine and with the Europeans”. Writing in all caps, Polish President Donald Tusk called for a “A JUST PEACE. Ukraine, Europe and the United States should work on this together. TOGETHER.”
Several other European leaders are today sharing similar messages, just like President Volodymyr Zelensky has long maintained that talks to end the war must include Ukraine. A point the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, also reiterated today.
If Ukraine and European nations are sidelined in peace talks, the fear is that Trump might push Ukraine into accepting a disadvantageous peace deal that could embolden Russia. Security guarantees – if not a NATO membership – will be a Ukrainian top priority in peace talks.
New American Demands to European NATO Partners
Back in Brussels, Hegseth announced new dynamics in the NATO alliance. Hegseth echoed Trump’s call for NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. This is something that European leaders have long anticipated, even if the increased American demands will likely challenge some European economies.
From Brussels, Al Jazeera’s reporter, Hashem Ahelbarra, says: “Hegseth has said very clearly today that from now onwards, the Europeans have to understand that given the stark geopolitical developments globally, the Americans won’t be primarily focused on Europe’s security. There are other challenges, and on top of that agenda is China’s growing economic and military clout globally, which the Americans would like to counter,” Ahelbarra adds.
What’s Next?
With Trump pushing for immediate negotiations and the U.S. signaling a reduced commitment to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Ukraine faces increased pressure to consider concessions in potential peace talks. Meanwhile, ongoing Russian attacks suggest that Moscow may be trying to strengthen its position before negotiations.
Rather than a cold-war struggle between East and West, there are signs that negotiations will further drive a wedge between the US and Europe. One thing is certain, with Trump’s promises to end the war 24 hours after his inauguration, he’ll be interested in a fast solution.
