The global economy is entering a phase where access to critical minerals increasingly determines industrial leadership, technological sovereignty and geopolitical influence. From electric vehicles and wind turbines to semiconductors, artificial intelligence and defence systems, modern industries rely on a narrow group of materials whose supply chains remain fragile, concentrated and politically sensitive.
As governments and corporations seek to reduce dependence on single-source suppliers, attention is shifting toward countries capable not only of extracting raw materials, but of integrating into higher value-added stages of global supply chains. Kazakhstan is one of those countries now moving decisively in that direction.
Why Critical Minerals Matter Now
Critical minerals differ from traditional commodities in several important ways. Many are not mined as primary products, but occur as by-products of other ores. Cobalt, bismuth and tin often accompany copper deposits; antimony is extracted alongside gold or lead; indium is largely a by-product of zinc mining. As a result, supply is highly sensitive to changes in unrelated mining operations, making global availability volatile and difficult to forecast.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global market for minerals essential to the energy transition reached approximately USD 325 billion in 2023. While comparable in size to the iron ore market, it represents less than 5% of the oil and gas market. Prices are prone to sharp swings, reflecting supply disruptions, technological shifts and policy decisions.
Demand, however, is accelerating rapidly. Wind power projects alone rely on at least 18 critical minerals, while solar energy uses at least 15. Semiconductors require silicon, gallium and germanium, alongside palladium, iridium, cobalt, titanium and copper at different production stages. Electric vehicles are the fastest-growing source of demand: global EV sales reached 17.1 million units in 2024, and mineral demand related to EV production is expected to rise from under 2 million tonnes in 2020 to more than 30 million tonnes by 2030.
A Concentrated Global Market
Despite their strategic importance, global rare earth supply chains remain highly concentrated. China controls more than 70% of global production and nearly 90% of processing capacity, while also possessing the world’s most advanced refining technologies. Many of these materials are subject to export restrictions, exposing global markets to repeated supply shocks.
Over the past two decades, the rare earth sector has experienced multiple structural cycles. Global production rose from approximately 101,500 tonnes in 2004 to nearly 380,000 tonnes in 2024, yet demand continues to outpace supply amid accelerating electrification and rising defence spending.
Kazakhstan’s Resource Base
Kazakhstan already plays a significant role in global raw materials markets. The country accounts for more than 40% of global uranium production, ranks among the world’s top ten copper producers with a 3.2% market share, holds ninth place in zinc reserves and is also among the top ten countries for bauxite reserves. Kazakhstan ranks 14th globally in gold reserves and produces around 4% of the world’s silver.
In recent years, its potential in rare earths has drawn growing international attention. New geological assessments indicate a significant increase in forecasted REE reserves. In the Karaganda region alone, estimated resources amount to 28.2 million tonnes, which could place Kazakhstan second globally if confirmed.
Kazakhstan currently extracts 19 out of the 34 rare earth elements considered critical for the European Union, including beryllium, tantalum, niobium and rhenium. Lithium represents another strategic opportunity, with global demand projected to increase up to 42 times by 2040.
From Extraction To Execution
Resource abundance alone is no longer sufficient. The key challenge is execution — scaling exploration, addressing skills shortages, mobilising financing and accelerating the build-out of processing capacity.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has designated rare and rare earth metals as a strategic priority, instructing the government to launch at least three high-tech processing facilities within three years. This commitment is embedded in the Comprehensive Plan for the Development of the Rare and Rare Earth Metals Industry for 2024–2028.
Industrial Leadership And Operational Benchmarks
As one of Kazakhstan’s leading copper mining companies, KAZ Minerals plays a central role in the country’s mining and metallurgical sector and demonstrates strong long-term growth potential. The Group is well integrated into the global copper industry, operating large-scale, technologically advanced assets aligned with international performance and cost-efficiency standards.
In 2025, KAZ Minerals delivered one of the strongest operational performances in its history. At the Aktogay copper mine, the cumulative volume of sulphuric ore processed exceeded 60 million tonnes for the first time since the operation was launched. Both concentrator plants, originally designed for a capacity of 25 million tonnes of ore per year each, operated at levels exceeding 30 million tonnes annually.
The Aktogay facilities are equipped with some of the largest grinding mills supplied by FLS, reflecting the industrial scale of the project and the Group’s focus on deploying globally proven technologies.
A Strategic Window Of Opportunity
Kazakhstan’s ambitions align with global efforts to diversify supply chains beyond traditional hubs. Cooperation frameworks with the United States and the European Union signal readiness to integrate into alternative supply networks.
If current reforms are sustained and investment flows materialise, Kazakhstan could secure a durable position in global value chains as a strategic partner in the critical minerals economy.
