Bitcoin is down roughly around 50% from its all-time high of $126,000, and the mood across the crypto markets is cautious at best. But zoom out, and the structural case for bitcoin hasn’t weakened. If anything, it’s gotten stronger.
Institutional capital is more committed than ever, Europe has rolled out the world’s most comprehensive crypto regulation, and the April 2024 halving continues to tighten supply in ways that historically precede significant price appreciation.
This article walks through five data-backed reasons why buying Bitcoin probably still makes sense today, and one important reason why “probably” belongs in that sentence.
The Current State of Bitcoin
Bitcoin hit its all-time high $126,000 in October 2025.
As of mid-February 2026, it’s hovering around $65,000. If you’re reading that and thinking the opportunity has passed, that’s understandable. A nearly 50% drawdown doesn’t exactly scream “buy now.”
But Bitcoin has a long history of rewarding patience over panic, and there are several reasons, grounded in data rather than hype, to suggest this time is no different. Here are five of them:
1. Institutional Adoption Has Crossed the Point of No Return
When U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, the question was whether Wall Street would show up. 13 months later, the answer is unambiguous.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone manages over $50 billion in assets. Fidelity’s FBTC holds another $12 billion. Across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, roughly 1.3 million BTC now sits in institutional custody. That’s more than 6% of bitcoin’s total supply locked up in regulated investment vehicles.
What’s more telling is what happened during the recent selloff. Despite bitcoin falling over 40% from its all-time high, total ETF holdings dropped by only about 5% from their October peak. In other words, institutional investors aren’t panic-selling. No, they’re holding.
When U.S. ETFs recorded $562 million in net inflows on a single day in early February 2026, it was a reminder that the smart money still sees value at these levels. This matters for anyone considering buying Bitcoin because institutional participation changes the asset’s structural foundation.
In previous cycles, bitcoin’s price was driven almost entirely by retail speculation. Today, it’s underpinned by pension funds, sovereign wealth allocations, and the world’s largest asset managers.
2. Bitcoin Still Outperforms as a Long-Term Store of Value
The knock on bitcoin has always been volatility. In any given week, Bitcoin can move 15% in either direction.
But the long-term numbers tell a very different story. Over long time horizons, bitcoin has significantly outperformed gold and most traditional asset classes. For example, between 2012 and 2022, Bitcoin delivered a 3,700% inflation-adjusted return, which is a figure that makes every other asset class look pedestrian.
Even JPMorgan, historically skeptical of bitcoin, has shifted its tone. In February 2026, the bank’s strategists noted that bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold has actually decreased, and argued that this trend makes bitcoin “even more attractive compared to gold” over the long term. Their analysis suggested that if bitcoin’s volatility were to match gold’s, its fair value would be roughly $266,000 per coin.
None of this means bitcoin is a replacement for gold or bonds in a traditional portfolio. But for investors with a time horizon measured in years rather than weeks, the data suggests bitcoin has earned its place as a serious store of value, with a hard cap of 21 million coins versus gold’s 1.5–2% annual supply increase from mining.
3. The Halving Supply Squeeze Is Still in Play
Every four years, the number of new BTC entering circulation gets cut in half. It’s called the “halving,” and it happened most recently in April 2024, when the mining reward dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.
Historically, the 12 to 24 months following a halving have produced significant price appreciation. After the 2012 halving, bitcoin’s price surged by around 7,000%. After 2016, it gained 291%.
After 2020, 541%. The current post-halving cycle, which saw bitcoin rally from about $63,000 to $126,000 before the pullback, is the weakest in percentage terms, but it’s also playing out in a fundamentally different market.
With 94% of all bitcoin already mined, the supply dynamics are becoming increasingly constrained. Annual new supply now sits at just 0.85% of total circulation. Add ETF accumulation to the equation, where large institutions are removing significant quantities of Bitcoin from liquid markets, and the supply-demand picture becomes harder to ignore.
Critics rightly point out that each successive halving has a diminishing impact on supply. That’s mathematically true. But it’s also true that demand-side forces, particularly from institutional buyers who weren’t present in earlier cycles, are filling the gap that a smaller supply shock leaves behind.
4. Europe’s Regulatory Framework Is Actually Working
If you’ve been hesitant to buy bitcoin because of regulatory uncertainty, 2026 might be the year that concern starts to fade, at least in Europe.
The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which entered full force on December 30, 2024, represents the most comprehensive crypto regulatory framework anywhere in the world.
Over 40 crypto-asset service provider (CASP) licenses have been issued so far, with full compliance required across all EU member states by July 2026. MiCA requires licensed platforms to implement robust consumer protections, transparent fee structures, and compliance with anti-money laundering standards. The vast majority of EU-based crypto exchanges have already updated their KYC and AML processes to meet these requirements.
For European investors specifically, this is significant. You can now buy bitcoin through a regulated European app with the confidence that your platform operates under the same kind of regulatory oversight as traditional financial services.
Switzerland-based Relai, for example, obtained one of the first MiCA licenses from the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF), allowing it to serve users across 30 EEA countries. The app takes a self-custodial approach, which means your Bitcoin is held in a wallet you control and supports automated recurring purchases starting from as little as €50.
The combination of regulatory clarity and accessible platforms removes two of the biggest historical barriers to bitcoin adoption in Europe: the fear of operating in a legal grey area, and the technical complexity of buying and storing the asset safely.
5. Access Has Never Been Easier
Five years ago, buying bitcoin meant navigating complex exchange interfaces, wiring money to unfamiliar platforms, and managing private keys with little margin for error. The friction was real, and it kept a lot of otherwise interested people on the sidelines.
That’s no longer the case. Today’s Bitcoin apps are designed for people who have never touched a cryptocurrency in their lives.
Features like auto-invest (where you set a recurring purchase amount and the app buys bitcoin on a schedule) have made dollar-cost averaging accessible to anyone with a bank account and a smartphone. There’s no need to time the market or understand blockchain architecture.
This shift in accessibility matters because it changes who can participate. A teacher in Milan, a small business owner in Berlin, or a freelancer in Lisbon can all build a bitcoin position with minimal effort and without needing to trust a centralised exchange with their funds.
And for those who worry about the technical side of self-custody, modern wallets have solved most of the usability challenges that plagued earlier generations. Cloud-encrypted backups, biometric authentication, and intuitive recovery processes mean that holding your own bitcoin is now roughly as straightforward as managing a mobile banking app.
The “Probably” Part
This article has “probably” in the title for a reason.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,000, which means the digital currency is down nearly 50% from its peak. Some analysts, including those at Canary Capital, expect 2026 to be a bear leg in the traditional four-year cycle.
More than $2 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in a single week during February’s selloff. Volatility hasn’t disappeared and there are also structural risks worth acknowledging.
The regulatory picture outside Europe is far less clear. The United States, for example, is navigating its own debates over crypto policy.
And while Bitcoin’s long-term returns are remarkable, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Anyone buying Bitcoin now should do so with capital they can afford to have locked in a volatile asset for several years. The case for bitcoin is strong, but it’s not a sure thing.
Conclusion
The headlines right now are dominated by price drops and bearish sentiment. That’s what happens after a 50% drawdown.
But beneath the noise, the fundamentals supporting bitcoin are more robust than they’ve ever been. Institutional capital isn’t leaving. The supply schedule is mathematically tightening. Europe has built a regulatory framework that other jurisdictions are watching closely. And the tools to buy, hold, and secure Bitcoin have matured to the point where the average person can participate without needing a computer science degree.
None of this means bitcoin will go up tomorrow, next month, or even this year. But for those with a long-term perspective and a tolerance for short-term turbulence, the data suggests that writing off bitcoin at $70,000 might be just as premature as writing it off at $3,000 was in 2019.
The word “probably” does a lot of heavy lifting. But in a world of $36 trillion national debts, 0.85% annual bitcoin supply growth, and JPMorgan strategists quietly calling bitcoin “more attractive than gold,” probably is looking more and more like a reasonable bet.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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